Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd32d1659fac88522ebcd019e90d17004c6dbc76c0bed63461cf1458d8175276
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 68c | 5,387$3,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 32c | 3,305$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.51 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 75c | 1,428$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.37 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 30c | 1,370$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 1,000$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked No | 72c | 872.92$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…83d3backed Yes | 14c | 766.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 29c | 674.5$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.7 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 69c | 600$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 597.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed Yes | 34c | 597.22$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 77c | 550$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.33 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 34c | 518.69$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.35 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 33c | 515.96$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 34c | 450$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 311$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.45 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f5…86e1backed Yes | 30c | 302$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 34c | 299.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…5c87backed Yes | 37c | 299.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.74 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 65c | 280$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 69c | 234$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 23c | 208$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 31c | 198.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 74c | 179.09$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…f2a9backed No | 71c | 158$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…7edbbacked Yes | 34c | 148.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 148.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…3e05backed No | 71c | 144.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…06c0backed Yes | 34c | 143.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 21c | 133.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 31c | 126.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 19c | 123.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +135%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 54c | 112.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 13c | 109.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…6700backed Yes | 26c | 98.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 19c | 92.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 68c | 91.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0a…1a57backed Yes | 17c | 90.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 32c | 76.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd910…c291backed Yes | 61c | 76.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2132backed Yes | 23c | 74.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 70c | 71.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…b1eabacked Yes | 31c | 68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ca…630abacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7c…ba26backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…2919backed No | 67c | 60.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 69c | 59.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 68c | 58.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 58.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 58.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…1b0dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 75c | 44.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b9…d361backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…f963backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2f…5438backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…12a5backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…bac3backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 74c | 38.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 34c | 37.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 36c | 37.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff5…d165backed No | 74c | 32.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2d…b69dbacked Yes | 35c | 29.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…a5bdbacked No | 70c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7983…a770backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…cc54backed No | 69c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Central Bank" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Innovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Progress" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.