Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eab5df69444cd71bbb5a9ca75fb1a69ccb9f7b9f91a170ba1cd95c932489e45

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $684

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $610 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 5 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xebd5…094cbacked Yes	46c	55$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed No	53c	52.63$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.74	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked No	53c	37.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.69	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes	76c	21$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed No	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.33per pick	47cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event