Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f7f8a507935a8c8d2ffe1ef691706c27f873d28f8aa1a6cb92fc164a62bff08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 47c | 2,230$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.97 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 60c | 1,439$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 59c | 1,254$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.81 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 54c | 890.57$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…4070backed Yes | 41c | 823.24$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked Yes | 40c | 807.63$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 42c | 561.79$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.62 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 39c | 475.82$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.57 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 399.86$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.94 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked Yes | 40c | 397$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed No | 59c | 364$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed7…16b2backed No | 60c | 364$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 61c | 356.49$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 60c | 299.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8131…c01cbacked Yes | 41c | 237.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 231.81$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcc…e1f9backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 39c | 195.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…094cbacked Yes | 38c | 191.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 177$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 40c | 137.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 135.43$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 51c | 131.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 41c | 112.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 106.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked No | 62c | 87.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 39c | 85.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 36c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 41c | 81.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 41c | 66.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 42c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 44c | 61.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 61c | 61.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 43c | 59.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…090dbacked Yes | 52c | 53.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…b528backed Yes | 41c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 40c | 51.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…13cfbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481e…b1e4backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 58c | 44.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…4fb8backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd357…60ffbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…9090backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 60c | 28.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…99ecbacked No | 60c | 24.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec9…fbf1backed No | 60c | 23.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Central Bank" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Innovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Progress" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.