Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecf59b9e5f45dc0fcbc0063b9db5eb1221b833a03b429652dfe2ec858793a746

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,385
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,385 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes	28c	559.9$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.93	11	90.9%10 W · 1 L	+4.2wins	+0.39per pick	52cpaid	+79.7%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	19c	318.4$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.81	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+7.0wins	+0.15per pick	33cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xffc5…67a5backed Yes	19c	254.1$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.89	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.81per pick	19cpaid	+427.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	20c	233.16$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.78	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked No	77c	231.82$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.64	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+4.0wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+62.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes	26c	159.99$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.85	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	23c	132.52$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.04	50	38%19 W · 31 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	22c	131.81$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.4	123	22.8%28 W · 95 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked No	77c	123.95$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.44	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No	71c	107.65$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.53	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	79c	105$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.95	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	80c	100$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	181	35.4%64 W · 117 L	-16.4wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes	23c	91.82$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.7	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	59cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	20c	77$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.76	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked No	70c	67.96$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.47	10	60%6 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	20c	51.31$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.05	190	26.3%50 W · 140 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	77c	28.4$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.77	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc536…44edbacked No	80c	25.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event