Europa Conference League · resolved market
PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b2a3956f9deb7201c0bb5cd769a2e00c27b3eb42913f8275129cdece7784667
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2795…fd6bbacked Under | 45c | 4,159$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,287.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 76c | 1,552$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.11 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 1,477$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.76 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 22c | 1,250$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Over | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 24c | 625$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 67c | 603.08$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.49 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…0380backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Over | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6589backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 27c | 499.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 496.17$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.87 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 468.43$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.51 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Over | 46c | 438.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…412ebacked Over | 32c | 308.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 299.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…1405backed Under | 74c | 251.5$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Over | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 26c | 208.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…799dbacked Over | 24c | 191.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…a58abacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 26c | 187.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 74c | 180$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…ea8dbacked Over | 45c | 152.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked Over | 66c | 135$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 10c | 134.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2085…dd27backed Over | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 47c | 125.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 107.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 46c | 102.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 42c | 99.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 57c | 96.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Over | 27c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Over | 25c | 80.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 43c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 66.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…cc32backed Over | 28c | 66.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…d837backed Under | 19c | 65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 17c | 62.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…78b6backed Over | 25c | 58.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 53c | 57.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 28c | 47.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 45c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…05dfbacked Under | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…bd86backed Under | 76c | 45.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 39c | 43.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 73c | 37.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 55c | 32.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -12.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 49c | 30.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 77c | 24.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Under | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Under | 73c | 16.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5this page
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5Over won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.