Europa Conference League · resolved market
PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7995d969cf653f3cf0e750cdc9523890cdeb440bb0e5aa09f235bf041f72b7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1110…0123backed Over | 75c | 1,975$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 25c | 1,872$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.63 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 72c | 899.99$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 28c | 887.49$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Over | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 74c | 448$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 380.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 29c | 272.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 70c | 228.48$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 225.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 73c | 210.02$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20f…fcaabacked Over | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Over | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 33c | 199.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Over | 72c | 175.19$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 32c | 103.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 28c | 78.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Over | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…6bf3backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 74c | 67.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Over | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 73c | 30.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…4fd7backed Over | 74c | 20.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5this page
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5Over won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5Under won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.