TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9670…6589

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: La Liga, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 54 out of 100; worst Bundesliga at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oregon Ducks vs. Northwestern Wildcatsbacked Oregon Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$37.11
Seton Hall Pirates vs. Connecticut Huskies: O/U 130.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Cal Poly Mustangs vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: O/U 160.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Tennessee Volunteersbacked Oklahoma Sooners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Texas A&M Aggiesbacked Ole Miss Rebels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Clemson Tigers vs. Wake Forest Demon Deaconsbacked Clemson Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Pepperdine Waves vs. Portland Pilotsbacked Portland Pilots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
West Georgia Wolves vs. Eastern Kentucky Colonelsbacked West Georgia Wolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$43.9
Lipscomb Bisons vs. Bellarmine Knightsbacked Bellarmine Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Jacksonville Dolphins vs. Florida Gulf Coast Eaglesbacked Jacksonville Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
SMU Mustangs vs. Syracuse Orangebacked SMU Mustangs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Massachusetts Minutemen (W)backed Miami (OH) RedHawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-13.5)backed Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 13 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NEC vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$18.4
Sporting CP vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+1,900%+$259.14
FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10.24
FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50
FC Famalicão vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$50
AZ vs. Sparta Rotterdam: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$27.13
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-02-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$18.78
Kasımpaşa SK vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$17.66
AVS Futebol vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Gil Vicente FC vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$45.98
Alanyaspor vs. Konyaspor: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 11 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup 1 Playoffsbacked Voca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$33.05
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs The Continental (BO1) - META Cup Group Abacked The Continental · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Sangal (BO1) - META Cup Group Abacked Sangal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs The Continental (BO1) - META Cup Group Abacked Nemiga · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Sangal (BO1) - META Cup Group Abacked CYBERSHOKE Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: AaB esport vs Metizport - Map 2 Winnerbacked AaB esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Map Handicap: MZP (-1.5) vs AaB esport (+1.5)backed AaB esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Map Handicap: MONEY CREW (-1.5) vs FlyQuest RED (+1.5)backed MONEY CREW · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 10 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$45
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$45
SC Freiburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$14.54
SC Freiburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$17.39
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$47.07
VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$50
VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$25.7
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$31.78
All 10 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+233.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$50
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Final - Canada vs. USAbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$42.18
Women's Final - USA vs. Canadabacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$39.51
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hellas Verona FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$17.28
Hellas Verona FC vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$38.82
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Qatar Open, Qualification: Quentin Halys vs Jan Choinskibacked Halys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$16.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jets vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$34.68
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.