Europa Conference League · resolved market
AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb62523a7674522888dff443a3f9cb4ca986fcaa5401cc9a863214f36c4262435
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2053…1eedbacked Over | 41c | 2,464$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 60c | 1,225$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.09 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 1,006$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.89 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 859.14$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.89 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6589backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 432.5$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.55 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 76c | 351.64$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 41c | 351$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…d837backed Under | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91e…b045backed Under | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1c…94d3backed Over | 42c | 179.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 18c | 175$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 157.53$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 45c | 141.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 80c | 135$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 39c | 105.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 40c | 87.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 84.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 53c | 67.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Under | 50c | 48.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…b778backed Under | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…3a2abacked Under | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 38c | 29.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Under | 61c | 29.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 36c | 28.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 46c | 24.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…6075backed Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +64%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Under | 60c | 18.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 3.5this page
- AZ vs. Noah FA: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 1.5Over won
- AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 2.5Over won
- AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AZ (-1.5)AZ won
- Spread: AZ (-2.5)AZ won
- Spread: Noah FA (-1.5)AZ won
- Spread: Noah FA (-2.5)AZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.