Europa Conference League · resolved market
AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48bbeb6f8778ea8d473c4661a89894caa26e373d4d8b684c0741517a0e7bb8f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 36c | 2,211$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.19 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Over | 64c | 940.38$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.37 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 64c | 859.38$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.38 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 26c | 783.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Over | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 552.22$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.54 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 36c | 521.96$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.9 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 64c | 521.89$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.88 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 38c | 510.21$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 436.09$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.98 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 73c | 306.26$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.17 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Under | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Over | 64c | 182.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Under | 22c | 133.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 36c | 132.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf404…0271backed Over | 62c | 114.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 37c | 104.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 38c | 98.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Under | 25c | 91.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…5fb9backed Over | 61c | 90.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 37c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd272…2856backed Over | 79c | 56.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a36…2450backed Under | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +188.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…dc7dbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Under | 39c | 47.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Under | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 61c | 36.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.4wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 2.5this page
- AZ vs. Noah FA: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 1.5Over won
- AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 3.5Over won
- AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AZ (-1.5)AZ won
- Spread: AZ (-2.5)AZ won
- Spread: Noah FA (-1.5)AZ won
- Spread: Noah FA (-2.5)AZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.