Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: AZ (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb86a2a66b351feb06500301d6d41fa944257a9891716e86d2e0fc2f30fb30ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AZof AZ, Noah FA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Noah FA | 45c | 1,228$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.43 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AZ | 60c | 830.52$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.57 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Noah FA | 45c | 494.1$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.65 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed AZ | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf404…0271backed AZ | 55c | 212.73$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed AZ | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Noah FA | 45c | 124.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Noah FA | 46c | 109.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…9ac3backed Noah FA | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed AZ | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked AZ | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Noah FA | 46c | 99.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Noah FA | 45c | 97.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked AZ | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked AZ | 54c | 72.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…8525backed AZ | 55c | 68.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed AZ | 54c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…3b25backed AZ | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5a…166fbacked AZ | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Noah FA | 31c | 47.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed AZ | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…6bf3backed AZ | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…5b38backed AZ | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…bc51backed AZ | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed AZ | 56c | 19.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed AZ | 54c | 19.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AZ (-1.5)this page
- AZ vs. Noah FA: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 1.5Over won
- AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 2.5Over won
- AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 3.5Over won
- AZ vs. Noah FA: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AZ (-2.5)AZ won
- Spread: Noah FA (-1.5)AZ won
- Spread: Noah FA (-2.5)AZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.