Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d4d79522686f77a10ca4884669d588f7146ff23a8825a060c3d7500215b59d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Under | 44c | 14,021$6,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,159.38 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 6,018$3,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,884.5 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 56c | 1,608$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.7 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 56c | 1,400$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 857.56$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.56 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 56c | 625$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 21c | 562$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.98 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6589backed Under | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 11c | 457.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 380.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.67 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 28c | 373.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.18 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Over | 11c | 312.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.92 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 42c | 178.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.42 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 19c | 175$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…45f0backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +111%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 36c | 134.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.36 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 38c | 110$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 21c | 109.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 59c | 102.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 77c | 90.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Over | 70c | 88.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 56c | 73.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 56c | 32.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 56c | 30.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 56c | 30.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…b668backed Under | 80c | 24.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-2.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.