Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe27697a21731f88ad5dc2b23cc9f600317b5a4b009f319aeda3f52a830401379
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 5,635$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 80c | 3,149$2,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.84 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 26c | 1,719$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Over | 42c | 1,475$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.29 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 1,339$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.66 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 20c | 1,176$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.16 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 77c | 700$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 569.25$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.89 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 21c | 532.84$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 60c | 310$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Under | 24c | 294.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d9…8bfbbacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Under | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 66c | 75.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed Under | 40c | 70.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 51c | 57.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd040…4e6bbacked Over | 32c | 56.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 21c | 56.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 78c | 49.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 21c | 49.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Over | 39c | 32.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…9e2bbacked Under | 51c | 30.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8529…b973backed Over | 70c | 26.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 25.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x120a…ed97backed Over | 73c | 23.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 66c | 22.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 65c | 21.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-2.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.