Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ce8a062e0827e52332d87aba7171b18959f1c2c2788f890b58850c0fdbf1456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 54c | 779.84$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 49c | 334.76$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.29 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Yes | 62c | 290.32$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 39c | 208.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 38c | 179.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a80…49bfbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 60c | 99.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Yes | 50c | 78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 60c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ca…51a5backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Yes | 60c | 49.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 44c | 34.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-2.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.