Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9dd99f3c5be5c2c129db217183df4fdbc804b4a68a66876d97f3bc08ffaef63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Under | 67c | 9,636$6,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,447.24 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 5,410$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,678.93 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 2,558$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.02 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 33c | 2,173$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.53 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Over | 22c | 1,341$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 31c | 1,249$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.32 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 32c | 768$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.24 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…0380backed Under | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6589backed Under | 10c | 473.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 33c | 400$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…d837backed Under | 14c | 375$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 32c | 360$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.8 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 35c | 248.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.47 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 77c | 203.73$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.01 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed Over | 33c | 187.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…dfafbacked Over | 37c | 186$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 182.48$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.44 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 32c | 154.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.15 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 33c | 154.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.28 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…30d5backed Under | 66c | 151.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 24c | 126.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 73c | 113.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 31c | 83.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Over | 29c | 75.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c1…5981backed Under | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…8ff4backed Over | 36c | 51.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +63%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 69c | 46.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 31c | 46.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc2…757cbacked Under | 80c | 41.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 31c | 32.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…ef4cbacked Under | 74c | 15.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.