Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x182233519fd2a9d25947e2b8b58439f0ccb7a835e505bf4e4451e44bb94488f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Under | 45c | 16,497$7,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,408.64 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…fd6bbacked Under | 48c | 7,305$3,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,506.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 5,950$3,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,673.23 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 55c | 4,174$2,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.27 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 52c | 3,400$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 50c | 3,007$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.74 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Over | 60c | 2,514$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 1,919$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 70c | 1,098$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.32 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 54c | 929.24$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.45 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 33c | 834.09$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.44 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 59c | 576.27$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.27 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 430.93$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.05 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 54c | 293.8$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…d837backed Under | 8c | 269.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Under | 42c | 242.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 56c | 234.82$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…f0f2backed Over | 38c | 192.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 54c | 190.3$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 55c | 125$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 57c | 119.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Over | 55c | 111$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 54c | 68.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Over | 58c | 58.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25cb…f1d3backed Over | 61c | 57.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Under | 48c | 41.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6263…f8e1backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…8ff4backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +63%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 34.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…9551backed Over | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 55c | 30.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbc…93a8backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Over | 53c | 25.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 61c | 23.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 53c | 20.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.