Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52b4589d6d18e62f7677254d590497b1af4e55318b0c17f9d720f924f9e17881
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 57c | 6,000$3,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,420 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 43c | 2,573$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.79 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 44c | 2,552$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.97 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0126…4047backed Over | 44c | 2,480$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 56c | 2,327$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.32 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Under | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 1,917$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 979.37$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.9 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 42c | 653.12$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 58c | 544.71$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 43c | 459.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.83 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Under | 3c | 435.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 56c | 329.62$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.59 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Under | 57c | 320$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 42c | 290.6$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.48 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 62c | 273.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 36c | 247.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.85 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Over | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…c0dbbacked Over | 43c | 232.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 60c | 206.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6589backed Under | 6c | 187.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…9bbebacked Under | 72c | 163.64$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 74c | 162.66$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Under | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 56c | 133.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 125.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 43c | 113.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Under | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 47c | 96.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…390cbacked Over | 62c | 92.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 66c | 79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…3ed5backed Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 25c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 26c | 60.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 71c | 60.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 33c | 60.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed Over | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 67c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 36c | 54.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…1539backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…8b74backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 33c | 49.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…7ee6backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 33c | 40.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 71c | 36.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 65c | 28.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bc…03efbacked Over | 60c | 27.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +505.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 27.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Under | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 22.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.