Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf30e0f1b5eb0bc954928076e71e297ea7d08488c0412e67d5eeb6c7598ee044a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 50c | 8,795$4,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,397.5 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 8,609$4,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,304.5 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 4,235$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.28 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 71c | 3,675$2,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.84 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 2,843$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.05 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 62c | 1,730$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 52c | 1,439$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.86 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Over | 71c | 640$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 599.54$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.98 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 468$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.69 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 16c | 414.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 31c | 348$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.88 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over | 50c | 346.78$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 29c | 344.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 72c | 209.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -8.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Over | 51c | 173.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 162.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…b2a9backed Over | 51c | 145.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 50c | 100.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 77c | 97.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…9bbebacked Under | 47c | 64.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 29c | 59.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Over | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6506…a04bbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…772abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…5dcebacked Over | 59c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Over | 51c | 28.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…1879backed Over | 71c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…e914backed Over | 51c | 23.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f26…14f0backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.