Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74261dd9a9e264ce0870164fcd656a375a744a6a003dec229be126d862db8421
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 1c | 2,999$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 22cpaid | +705.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 78c | 2,600$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 2,170$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.08 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed Under | 5c | 1,265$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Under | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 22c | 998$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.44 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 14c | 423.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.35 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 60c | 345.41$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.1 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 60c | 324.9$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.94 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 32c | 299.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.25 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 77c | 212.62$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.93 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 65c | 206.28$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.35 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6589backed Under | 10c | 189.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 35c | 138$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 43c | 134.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…b628backed Under | 71c | 127.89$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 111.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…390cbacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 31c | 98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 36c | 66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 36c | 62.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 57.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 38c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 64c | 33.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…0a7bbacked Over | 43c | 29.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.