Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0085695553437403bc13982a47207cff83d9cfeaf1cf060bd2a3f55f4ca18e28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 7,698$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,582.58 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.9 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…b3b3backed Over | 54c | 2,058$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 1,075$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 16c | 951.1$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.22 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 15c | 941$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.15 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 34c | 882.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Over | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.06 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 534.7$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.28 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6589backed Under | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Over | 67c | 495.14$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed Over | 25c | 317$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Under | 18c | 221.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 137.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…8936backed Under | 13c | 123.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 79c | 116.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 28c | 113.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…c148backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 50c | 81.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…3ed5backed Under | 48c | 68.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 49c | 61.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…0ab3backed Over | 64c | 47.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 27c | 43.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 48c | 43.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 27c | 42.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0497…c5e3backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 37c | 35.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…b9d3backed Over | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +157.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 49c | 32.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Over | 52c | 29.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Over | 64c | 28.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 55c | 27.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 54c | 18.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Over | 57c | 18.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked Over | 61c | 16.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.