Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e97a423b4a43b1ebf00b5b7a755e78acc7413a6443a980209e78d214ff95256
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 8,205$5,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,832.57 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.99 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 37c | 4,140$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.45 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 63c | 3,000$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 24c | 1,250$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.75 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Under | 62c | 801$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.64 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 62c | 729.16$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.16 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 32c | 500$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.51 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 9c | 468.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 32c | 422$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.68 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 64c | 351.38$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 40c | 274.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 39c | 256$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 62c | 241.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 64c | 200.34$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 39c | 192.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 38c | 180$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 36c | 138.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 65c | 111.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 60c | 109$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 39c | 92.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…45f0backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +111%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 61c | 81.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 35c | 52.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…0c48backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Under | 67c | 46.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 61c | 43.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 61c | 42.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Under | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Under | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Under | 61c | 26.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 66c | 24.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…483abacked Under | 64c | 23.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 69c | 22.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 65c | 18.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 60c | 17.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 66c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Under | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.