TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,287
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,591

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,287 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2795…fd6bbacked Under41c20,113$8,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,867.31850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Under40c10,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,999.98650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over60c8,919$5,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,321.1334144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over59c6,749$4,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,002.143,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over59c6,584$3,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,890.461,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over60c3,773$2,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,263.622047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb52b…b156backed Under40c2,100$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2541154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Over62c1,913$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.387254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Under40c1,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Over39c1,248$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.6410026%26 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under39c1,112$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.4735856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over57c888$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.1613461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over61c819.67$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Under34c715$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.82755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under61c575.09$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.791,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3908…20eabacked Under48c537.38$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over60c526$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.618545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under40c505$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.0515244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e2…2157backed Over57c349.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Over60c331.26$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked Over60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1805044%22 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0189…cab8backed Over62c250$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1553167.7%21 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under41c249.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over66c240$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.513957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010863%68 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8090…42c1backed Over59c211.95$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Over60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12011644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over61c196.72$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12022157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under43c187.56$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.913839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Over60c180$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10811543.5%50 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8750…0841backed Over59c169.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4913…d01bbacked Over60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over42c166.23$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.381,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over62c162.82$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8224322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Under38c158$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9614254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Under40c140$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over66c135$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.89659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over45c132.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.272,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b0…7db2backed Under38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85a1…a640backed Over61c131.15$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808959.6%53 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over66c120$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.811955.5%66 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over66c120$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.97962%49 W · 30 L+10.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under39c119.97$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1810360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Under41c117.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.15038%19 W · 31 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over59c110.9$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8881732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4138845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8549…41f8backed Over30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked Under48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521070%7 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick39cpaid+151%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x55e4…f67dbacked Over61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Over26c96.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255339.6%21 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over59c85.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505429.6%16 W · 38 L-6.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-18.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe704…7558backed Over61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017855.6%99 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.13580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked Over21c77.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.621850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over66c75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.312162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1257…c9b2backed Over30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa03…45e9backed Over60c61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.652951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over41c60.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2525352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over66c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.425659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over39c59.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.963324.2%8 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-40.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over60c50.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8412157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ca7…0c48backed Under39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.52268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+42.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Under41c46.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.193250%16 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a0…e5ccbacked Under38c44$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.281050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Under38c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.86331.7%20 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd81c…0a81backed Under75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Over48c38.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.553154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e1…1b07backed Under55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.362556%14 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Under40c35.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.356659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff6b…8a9ebacked Over62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under41c31.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6262452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3798…2e72backed Over37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc209…7924backed Over62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under56c27.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.991,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Over60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9221051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d2…f555backed Under40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc891…cf27backed Over62c24.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under48c22.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7621540.9%88 W · 127 L-15.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cc3…1e73backed Over59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.84242.9%18 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Over55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116435.9%23 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x99c3…c8b4backed Over62c19.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick54cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc119…7d4dbacked Over62c19.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over61c17.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7712064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2394…9312backed Over62c16.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x010b…b668backed Under73c15.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.272045%9 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.