Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39b3ef9fd52752657061b0ca3fd6fa48121f166b1feb77506180035eb9149bab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 9,569$5,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,811.67 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 42c | 5,746$2,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,313.81 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…8e2bbacked Over | 28c | 2,377$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 58c | 2,275$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 44c | 1,988$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.28 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 55c | 875.12$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.32 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 43c | 871.35$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.67 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Over | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +75%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…be71backed Over | 48c | 583.21$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.27 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 61c | 577.84$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 543.74$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.44 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Over | 45c | 533$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.15 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6589backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 46c | 434.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.8 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 47c | 427.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.57 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 42c | 424$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.89 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Under | 56c | 403.57$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.3 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 64c | 375.98$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.95 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…0380backed Under | 10c | 356.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 282.39$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.76 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed Under | 13c | 238.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 54c | 228.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.26 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 65c | 199.39$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 20c | 181.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.4 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…54cbbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 71c | 122.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…545bbacked Under | 41c | 102.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 47c | 93.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 56c | 71.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 52c | 69.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 45c | 62.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Over | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c03…d9bcbacked Under | 58c | 58.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…06e8backed Under | 47c | 53.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…23c6backed Under | 56c | 50.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…472bbacked Under | 70c | 50.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 38c | 45.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 38c | 44.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 46c | 43.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 44c | 41.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 44c | 38.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…29b4backed Over | 41c | 36.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 43c | 35.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 45c | 33.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…3161backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 45c | 30.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 50c | 28.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 54c | 27.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…60d6backed Under | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5this page
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.