Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x620ef7ac674cfe2d3b053166b70e921e10e2c65e2520337d93212c72773e2e7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 74c | 3,500$2,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.99 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 1,808$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 27c | 1,114$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 26c | 837.72$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 732.56$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.39 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 76c | 723.68$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.68 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 24c | 690.07$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.62 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcc…e083backed Under | 74c | 541.77$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.86 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 80c | 204$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Under | 75c | 148$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf660…87e8backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 12c | 107.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ec…27c4backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 73c | 51.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8a…7fd4backed Under | 76c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5this page
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.