Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72688511d958f6c6efc6068f368d023969461b007379b63b077ae80fc59413d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 67c | 2,885$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.02 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 2,451$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.97 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Under | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked Under | 7c | 1,800$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed Under | 3c | 1,450$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 68c | 1,253$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.93 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 46c | 1,089$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.2 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 35c | 862.01$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 32c | 782.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.3 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 68c | 735$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Under | 42c | 721.93$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.84 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 675.72$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.19 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 66c | 449.98$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 437.41$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.66 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 363.06$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.54 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 74c | 349.99$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…7aaabacked Under | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 10c | 289.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…e6c5backed Under | 33c | 263.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Under | 33c | 234.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 61c | 177.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…8936backed Under | 11c | 159.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 32c | 156.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 16c | 131.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 39c | 130.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 67c | 100.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 33c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 76c | 69.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…545bbacked Over | 58c | 60.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 67c | 60.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…06e8backed Under | 26c | 57.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d0…e7d8backed Under | 33c | 57.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 56c | 53.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…44d8backed Under | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Under | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 33c | 39.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 68c | 37.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172c…94b0backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Under | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 50c | 27.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 41 | 87.8%36 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…dd3bbacked Over | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 48c | 25.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…58fdbacked Over | 67c | 25.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…3740backed Under | 75c | 24.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8819…4cf5backed Over | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…4841backed Over | 68c | 21.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…3095backed Over | 68c | 18.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…03b8backed Over | 68c | 16.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…736dbacked Over | 68c | 15.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5this page
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.