Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e325398889308b3d1ad2a6477f28a0e32a118cf6cb5621a969dde5e8aad49b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 3,033$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.78 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 21c | 1,225$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.21 | 115 | 20.9%24 W · 91 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Over | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.99 | 275 | 42.5%117 W · 158 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 775.25$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.22 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 35c | 749.99$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.5 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 13c | 455.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.72 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 30c | 403.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.81 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 35c | 249.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.49 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 32c | 204.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.15 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 61c | 156.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6589backed Under | 8c | 128$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 35c | 124.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 22c | 124.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 65c | 122$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 31c | 110$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…185cbacked Over | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…6048backed Over | 38c | 99.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 32c | 79.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Over | 33c | 74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Under | 69c | 63.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Under | 62c | 57.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 32c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 66c | 44.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 34c | 41.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 32c | 37.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 77c | 37.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 33c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 50c | 31.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 49c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 69c | 18.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…12d5backed Under | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-2.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)FC Arouca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.