Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c3b85b6b50923d4617c9f23295ae15d1a1b955a2f601525980b92fab1b18bc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Aroucaof FC Porto, FC Arouca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Arouca | 67c | 1,387$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.6 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed FC Porto | 32c | 494.6$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.88 | 115 | 20.9%24 W · 91 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Porto | 34c | 404.06$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.02 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed FC Porto | 31c | 307$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked FC Porto | 33c | 127.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed FC Porto | 35c | 123.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked FC Porto | 37c | 122.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed FC Arouca | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed FC Porto | 35c | 79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed FC Porto | 59c | 55.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21f…1c9cbacked FC Arouca | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…3afebacked FC Arouca | 71c | 41.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Porto | 29c | 41.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked FC Porto | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed FC Arouca | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed FC Arouca | 68c | 22.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed FC Arouca | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked FC Arouca | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…12d5backed FC Arouca | 69c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)this page
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-2.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)FC Porto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.