TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Top Esportsof JD Gaming, Top Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$532,170
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$645,990

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $532,170 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 397 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x14ac…cb21backed Top Esports55c22,108$12,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,938.2425446.1%117 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Top Esports64c18,655$11,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,719.21,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed JD Gaming48c18,115$8,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,769.7523447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2dd…cf72backed Top Esports59c17,270$10,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,027.652055%11 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4421…80d2backed JD Gaming3c14,000$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4351242.4%3 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-95.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed JD Gaming49c13,924$6,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,805.2825547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Top Esports54c13,358$7,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,098.2414056.4%79 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Top Esports39c12,000$4,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,259.953,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafda…0fccbacked JD Gaming58c10,646$6,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,194.2116654.8%91 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed JD Gaming75c9,897$7,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,382.4967276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked JD Gaming61c9,570$5,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,835.2810446.2%48 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked Top Esports40c9,169$3,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,503.26552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed JD Gaming62c9,087$5,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,663.1910048%48 W · 52 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed JD Gaming58c9,070$5,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,294.951,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed JD Gaming48c8,916$4,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,286.8431153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Top Esports44c7,439$3,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,135.351,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0e…9f75backed JD Gaming0c6,872$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.659644.8%43 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked JD Gaming48c6,071$2,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.892,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed JD Gaming59c5,833$3,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,441.549534.7%33 W · 62 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed JD Gaming31c5,277$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.2118451.6%95 W · 89 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5b8…99f3backed JD Gaming1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9670…6589backed JD Gaming1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed JD Gaming60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00082352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Top Esports63c4,845$3,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.8828361.5%174 W · 109 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Top Esports44c4,715$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,645.2825751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc19b…a935backed JD Gaming64c4,535$2,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,897.6421937.9%83 W · 136 L-0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Top Esports35c4,303$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,793.6985652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Top Esports48c3,844$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.0576639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed JD Gaming72c3,618$2,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,598.6240651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e8…2cecbacked JD Gaming1c3,600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4280%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de7…f96dbacked JD Gaming1c3,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed Top Esports43c3,500$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.4855639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Top Esports39c3,500$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,134.9849940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed JD Gaming60c3,424$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,068.3126246.6%122 W · 140 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Top Esports34c3,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,98021754.8%119 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked Top Esports40c2,900$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.2512646.8%59 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Top Esports40c2,900$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.981,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked Top Esports50c2,656$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.126549.2%32 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Top Esports40c2,592$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.7814637.7%55 W · 91 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Top Esports39c2,534$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.3317949.2%88 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed Top Esports40c2,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50043542.8%186 W · 249 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Top Esports40c2,493$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.8348440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed JD Gaming60c2,416$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.714757.1%84 W · 63 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Top Esports41c2,416$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.7618945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Top Esports39c2,369$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.6444047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed JD Gaming61c2,316$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.471,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc144…abc7backed JD Gaming42c2,300$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.993514.3%5 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-60.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2733…ac38backed JD Gaming44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007536%27 W · 48 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Top Esports34c2,239$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.5849549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed JD Gaming60c2,221$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.61,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6eb…bc82backed JD Gaming2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30296.9%2 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+195%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Top Esports40c2,000$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.69757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed JD Gaming60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e78…29d0backed Top Esports51c1,997$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.9224248.3%117 W · 125 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Top Esports49c1,900$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96017744.6%79 W · 98 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed Top Esports26c1,763$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.9942050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked JD Gaming42c1,750$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.9814041.4%58 W · 82 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8804…a3a7backed Top Esports50c1,742$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.9715450%77 W · 77 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed JD Gaming11c1,653$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.0754944.4%244 W · 305 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Top Esports40c1,635$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.331,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea63…682cbacked Top Esports38c1,624$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.311440.4%46 W · 68 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x042b…bbf1backed Top Esports59c1,600$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65612055%66 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x300c…7708backed Top Esports26c1,595$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.657448.6%36 W · 38 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+39.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked JD Gaming60c1,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdda…2408backed JD Gaming1c1,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Top Esports25c1,497$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.0530139.5%119 W · 182 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Top Esports41c1,480$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.1939239%153 W · 239 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Top Esports40c1,424$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.111,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed JD Gaming80c1,402$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12028827.4%79 W · 209 L-30.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked JD Gaming51c1,400$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.841,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed JD Gaming58c1,300$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76071249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked JD Gaming62c1,262$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.3453640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed JD Gaming60c1,194$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.221,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed JD Gaming57c1,128$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.226942.4%114 W · 155 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed JD Gaming64c1,101$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.3539851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked JD Gaming3c1,100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8e…156fbacked Top Esports40c1,100$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66015731.2%49 W · 108 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39bb…9e51backed JD Gaming55c1,079$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.2818149.2%89 W · 92 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Top Esports45c1,048$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.782,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed JD Gaming61c1,023$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.151,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…9e67backed Top Esports30c1,000$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.65837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed Top Esports39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6107759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed JD Gaming4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed JD Gaming1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101276.3%8 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e6b…b4b4backed JD Gaming1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-85.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Top Esports39c999.99$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61079653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked Top Esports38c999.99$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.0529236%105 W · 187 L-0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Top Esports58c999.99$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42023751.5%122 W · 115 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Top Esports38c999.99$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.991,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Top Esports35c999.98$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.9942924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed JD Gaming59c978$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.0214852%77 W · 71 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62b…625dbacked JD Gaming57c970.42$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.393441.2%14 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-25.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked Top Esports66c946.61$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.7723357.1%133 W · 100 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb80…ab99backed JD Gaming61c918$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.984872.9%35 W · 13 L+7.5wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+34.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked JD Gaming53c900$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47795951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed JD Gaming61c899.99$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.991,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed JD Gaming21c896.71$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.7423915.9%38 W · 201 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+53.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed JD Gaming60c834.91$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016745.5%76 W · 91 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f2f…552cbacked Top Esports43c825.41$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.7516349.7%81 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Top Esports48c819.71$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.371,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.