TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

SMU Mustangs vs. Syracuse Orange

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Syracuse Orangeof SMU Mustangs, Syracuse Orange
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,562
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,335

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,562 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe306…0380backed SMU Mustangs1c11,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5b8…99f3backed SMU Mustangs2c6,300$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9670…6589backed SMU Mustangs2c6,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked SMU Mustangs1c5,750$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2590…e38ebacked SMU Mustangs5c4,200$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Syracuse Orange37c3,968$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,504.555,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…f8bcbacked Syracuse Orange40c3,766$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,267.611947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aed…37c0backed SMU Mustangs71c3,523$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c28…59ffbacked SMU Mustangs2c3,500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf50d…7ba8backed SMU Mustangs3c2,700$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf68…6b13backed SMU Mustangs1c2,600$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x154d…a748backed SMU Mustangs2c2,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed SMU Mustangs60c2,384$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4412,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6da…2b66backed SMU Mustangs3c2,350$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604710.6%5 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed SMU Mustangs63c2,296$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.198356.6%47 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x441d…191bbacked SMU Mustangs6c2,200$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd607…6ddcbacked SMU Mustangs3c2,100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65496.1%3 W · 46 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-22.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Syracuse Orange43c1,992$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.442,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed SMU Mustangs66c1,855$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.362,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x359f…fa80backed SMU Mustangs5c1,700$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked SMU Mustangs65c1,406$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.571,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd92a…8936backed SMU Mustangs4c1,360$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf878…05c1backed SMU Mustangs10c1,300$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125120%0 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked SMU Mustangs71c1,189$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.324,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed SMU Mustangs62c1,134$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.581,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked SMU Mustangs67c1,069$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.6725246.4%117 W · 135 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8348…de9fbacked SMU Mustangs2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20300%0 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Syracuse Orange38c986.29$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.994,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4de1…22a0backed SMU Mustangs7c900$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e8…2cecbacked SMU Mustangs7c900$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick5cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed SMU Mustangs57c883.89$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.549444.7%42 W · 52 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed SMU Mustangs35c736.02$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.3768254.3%370 W · 312 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Syracuse Orange41c711.93$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.0481453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked SMU Mustangs59c670$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.337142.6%158 W · 213 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Syracuse Orange35c582.59$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.022,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…eb6abacked SMU Mustangs60c551.1$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.915733.1%52 W · 105 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Syracuse Orange43c512.01$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.7512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed SMU Mustangs71c505.05$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.783,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked SMU Mustangs68c503.3$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.841,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Syracuse Orange33c502.96$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.493,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb475…2ed2backed SMU Mustangs20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked SMU Mustangs64c466.85$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.451,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Syracuse Orange32c439.19$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.191,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0267…dc5abacked SMU Mustangs20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801546.7%7 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick26cpaid+59%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Syracuse Orange37c382.77$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.1555840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Syracuse Orange44c375.4$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.2244549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c12…b8f3backed SMU Mustangs64c349.15$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.662441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Syracuse Orange29c334.78$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.553,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Syracuse Orange31c321.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.0940252.7%212 W · 190 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Syracuse Orange36c316.58$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.992653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+29.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc5…7708backed Syracuse Orange32c309.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.2711028.2%31 W · 79 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Syracuse Orange45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.221,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked SMU Mustangs61c291.86$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.3187047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked SMU Mustangs59c271.39$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16045351.4%233 W · 220 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x980c…74cebacked SMU Mustangs58c237.93$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Syracuse Orange35c230.02$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.441,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed SMU Mustangs66c227.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15023941.4%99 W · 140 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Syracuse Orange27c207.77$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.442,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Syracuse Orange41c205.05$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.791,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Syracuse Orange40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1202,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdda…2408backed SMU Mustangs5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick3cpaid+1,328.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Syracuse Orange38c193.42$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7315551.6%80 W · 75 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked SMU Mustangs55c185$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7589645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Syracuse Orange23c182.65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.172,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee76…e67abacked SMU Mustangs57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011362.8%71 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Syracuse Orange40c163.66$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.461,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e1…7b41backed SMU Mustangs51c156.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-42.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0965…da73backed SMU Mustangs66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fbe…993abacked Syracuse Orange29c127.19$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.36154.1%33 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Syracuse Orange43c126$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8291848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked SMU Mustangs72c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9945953.8%247 W · 212 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b03…71babacked Syracuse Orange45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5514151.1%72 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Syracuse Orange46c99.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Syracuse Orange16c96.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4725239.3%99 W · 153 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Syracuse Orange35c82.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.261,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked SMU Mustangs61c80$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.481,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb194…1063backed SMU Mustangs64c70.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff7…3a9dbacked SMU Mustangs61c62.7$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed SMU Mustangs56c62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7236845.7%168 W · 200 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Syracuse Orange43c61.11$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8537947.8%181 W · 198 L-26.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60e3…c767backed SMU Mustangs60c59.82$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.892259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed SMU Mustangs61c57.21$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.121,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked SMU Mustangs55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3039050.5%197 W · 193 L-34.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed SMU Mustangs66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3322953.7%123 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Syracuse Orange30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3564658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed SMU Mustangs57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.552353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00cf…d102backed SMU Mustangs59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.521449.5%106 W · 108 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Syracuse Orange28c49.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4594036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Syracuse Orange37c48.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.71,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed SMU Mustangs58c48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9943053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fc…314dbacked Syracuse Orange31c45.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.235947.5%28 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid+29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed SMU Mustangs54c44.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2479448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed SMU Mustangs71c40.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7620248%97 W · 105 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabed…3fe6backed SMU Mustangs60c38.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb4…9854backed SMU Mustangs53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed SMU Mustangs56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1399045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62f9…ae42backed SMU Mustangs67c34.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.986550.8%33 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa22f…604cbacked SMU Mustangs63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204070%28 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85fb…7c3abacked SMU Mustangs79c31.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251844.4%8 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeac2…fd78backed SMU Mustangs64c31.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.015453.7%29 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.