Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: SMU Mustangs (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe12f6ffbf592af0fef38fbfbc255f7314d771deec44d06b704ec7bc1f4ad28ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Syracuse Orangeof SMU Mustangs, Syracuse Orange
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Syracuse Orange | 49c | 5,182$2,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,643.04 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked SMU Mustangs | 52c | 409.61$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.61 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Syracuse Orange | 53c | 398$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.63 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked SMU Mustangs | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Syracuse Orange | 48c | 253.28$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.7 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed SMU Mustangs | 46c | 253$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.78 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…8cc7backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 200.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Syracuse Orange | 54c | 189.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Syracuse Orange | 50c | 182.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SMU Mustangs | 46c | 157.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Syracuse Orange | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 268 | 48.1%129 W · 139 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Syracuse Orange | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Syracuse Orange | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Syracuse Orange | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked SMU Mustangs | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Syracuse Orange | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Syracuse Orange | 49c | 53.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 51.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked SMU Mustangs | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…15d4backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 35.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…4fb5backed Syracuse Orange | 49c | 32.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked SMU Mustangs | 46c | 32.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Syracuse Orange | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4a…7045backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-2.5)this page
- SMU Mustangs vs. Syracuse OrangeSyracuse Orange won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Syracuse Orange: O/U 157.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.