Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5828dad4e7cc61a98543c74bd0fbd467eb96b650ae7c149c9f8ca1b1689fc791
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 6,407$3,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,913.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 34c | 4,463$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,935.49 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked No | 8c | 1,217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,203$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.43 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 41c | 901.69$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 59c | 762.71$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.71 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 52c | 747.57$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.62 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 61c | 652.99$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.3 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6589backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc461…83dbbacked No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes | 42c | 499.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Yes | 47c | 408.31$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.31 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Yes | 52c | 386.12$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.34 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 59c | 340.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.67 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 41c | 287.36$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 42c | 277.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.45 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed No | 17c | 201.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…d0fabacked No | 12c | 199.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 69c | 152.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 41c | 135.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 58c | 125.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…8936backed No | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 57c | 113.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed No | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Yes | 42c | 110$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…9fe6backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 59c | 102.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9390…6303backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 51c | 92.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…a3b9backed Yes | 58c | 88.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 58c | 85.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 53c | 61.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…4d9ebacked Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Yes | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 68c | 46.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf6…4eaabacked No | 42c | 45.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…8107backed No | 42c | 42.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Yes | 59c | 35.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…10bebacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…22efbacked Yes | 37c | 32.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 59c | 28.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…5102backed Yes | 50c | 27.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Yes | 57c | 21.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…bc35backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.