Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d7b3df621836a5f3b224187382a516a188c439fd79213a2eb327797251d4aa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 13,531$5,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,656.63 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3b…4afdbacked Over | 58c | 2,758$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 18c | 2,073$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.21 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Over | 52c | 1,931$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…9645backed Over | 71c | 1,418$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 34c | 1,258$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.73 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked Under | 7c | 1,250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 1,184$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.07 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 739.12$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 666.64$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked Over | 27c | 500$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 54c | 368.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.11 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Over | 56c | 360$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.2 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 19c | 355.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…eb28backed Over | 61c | 300$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…baa7backed Under | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed Over | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 60c | 290.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc461…83dbbacked Under | 8c | 257.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…412ebacked Over | 40c | 247.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +91%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 38c | 241.26$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.9 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x638f…2edcbacked Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 77c | 209.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Under | 20c | 203.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 61c | 188.51$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8b…e16abacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…9716backed Over | 47c | 148.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 48c | 145.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…8936backed Under | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 18c | 118.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 19c | 106.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…c413backed Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…c148backed Under | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…d0fabacked Under | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…37d5backed Over | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…ace2backed Over | 53c | 83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…3ed5backed Under | 51c | 64.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbf…06d3backed Over | 61c | 62.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4f…75f2backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…cc73backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 46c | 54.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd4…035bbacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 47c | 35.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…5102backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 44c | 30.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Over | 60c | 30.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…e7d8backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 44c | 28.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6d…4f6abacked Under | 50c | 22.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 56c | 20.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x247a…7248backed Under | 50c | 20.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc7…6371backed Over | 64c | 17.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.