Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x371831364d6ac67d450ea3d687c1d32bfc0e1264d21b2b5a753bd684ed9a2def
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FSV Mainz 05of Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 1. FSV Mainz 05
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 32c | 2,021$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.87 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 74c | 1,747$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.62 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 29c | 1,250$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.46 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 33c | 305$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 69c | 202.06$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 28c | 157.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 33c | 156.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 32c | 156.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 14c | 144.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 31c | 142.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 14c | 101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…bcabbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 20c | 73.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…0635backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5a…166fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…167dbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c21…5b0bbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…fc81backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…4043backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…8910backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 68c | 33.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 33c | 33.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…23c6backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 33c | 32.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a6…fd0dbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…5abdbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…80dfbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…0518backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a80…cfdcbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…b668backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 67c | 28.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…b151backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 67c | 21.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2147…4699backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 66c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 76c | 13.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.