Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacebb13d16cf070c24ce76c65e2960ddfa49be27d684bf0d811ede4bb56bf6bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Under | 30c | 4,153$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 2,613$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.75 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 44c | 1,034$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.96 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 10c | 1,012$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 57c | 888$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.84 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Over | 55c | 651.99$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 649.51$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.95 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 17c | 621.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 33c | 560.51$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.54 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6589backed Under | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 61c | 490$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.1 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…d837backed Under | 11c | 330$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 45c | 312.3$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 295.27$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.77 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 229.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 8c | 196.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 67c | 190$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 77c | 187.06$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 46c | 185$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 31c | 180.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…30d5backed Over | 58c | 172.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 56c | 148.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 62c | 138$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 71c | 105.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…d35fbacked Over | 56c | 88.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 74c | 79.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…83a0backed Over | 68c | 67.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 45c | 67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 35c | 60.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Over | 71c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 57c | 54.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 61c | 50.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Over | 56c | 47.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 41c | 44.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dd…7a22backed Over | 72c | 42.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 42c | 32.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa5…a516backed Over | 67c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 80c | 23.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 47c | 22.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +6.3wins | +0.33per pick | 46cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 80c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Over | 78c | 14.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5this page
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.