Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42c89aca4ff90e392a2b009d0d1cc2087a147d7d17e388d2d54563e9e7f9cfd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Under | 2c | 4,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 2,972$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 1,349$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.64 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 77c | 1,297$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.31 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 1,100$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.91 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 47c | 921.4$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.56 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 46c | 865.56$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Over | 70c | 746.47$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.47 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…e89dbacked Over | 71c | 574.65$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 26c | 499.96$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.97 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 23c | 440.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.22 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6589backed Under | 10c | 317.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20f…fcaabacked Over | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 42c | 181.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 55c | 176.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 62c | 145.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Under | 77c | 145$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 35c | 140.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 136.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 42c | 90.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…8c3ebacked Over | 23c | 65.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 46c | 47.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…65babacked Over | 38c | 30.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Over | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Over | 54c | 21.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 77c | 15.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 76c | 14.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.