Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d1bd83c6427560e6a1a3833422f06c3bdecdc0789717e6a38ee6b854197327b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Under | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 69c | 1,021$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.97 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.64 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39bb…9e51backed Under | 72c | 350$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 16c | 264.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.78 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Over | 21c | 224$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 17c | 217.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.36 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 205.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.83 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 33c | 200$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 27c | 145.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.86 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 9c | 142.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.53 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 17c | 83.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 33c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…3770backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…bbd7backed Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 79c | 29.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 47c | 26.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…5f52backed Under | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 75c | 15.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.