TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$326,070
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$338,392

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,070 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Under58c127,853$74,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,162.462832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under58c83,764$48,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,583.1514756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Over42c51,837$21,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,065.734854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over43c36,813$15,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,942.023,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under59c28,510$16,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,774.849951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over42c25,708$10,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,818.212,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Over42c20,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Under58c20,000$11,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,599.996251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over41c16,076$6,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,534.911,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over42c14,829$6,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,600.8217251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over42c13,526$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,858.491,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Over41c10,000$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,900450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Over42c9,426$3,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,466.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+46%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over42c8,714$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,054.288037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Over42c7,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0608752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over42c6,436$2,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,732.8810154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf35c…b645backed Over42c6,036$2,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,500.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under55c6,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.9716647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Over43c5,922$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,371.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b2…c0dbbacked Over43c4,882$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.47580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+92.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over41c4,205$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,481.1238748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over45c3,063$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,687.4156547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Over42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Over41c1,500$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88527726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b2…fb61backed Over44c1,375$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Over43c1,177$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over43c1,166$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.6213461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Over42c1,079$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.571050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30012952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Over77c913.79$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.199476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under57c904.89$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.9935856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Over43c813.05$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Over43c697.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.67683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+75%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc55d…9d2dbacked Over46c652.17$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.171163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ab4…a81bbacked Over41c580.92$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.291154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Over44c571.59$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…73a1backed Under59c533.49$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.71425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8577…199abacked Over77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.36per pick53cpaid+120.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xec82…04b5backed Over77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+84.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e54…8347backed Over43c484.69$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Over45c451.11$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.115848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Under59c423.73$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Over42c400$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23231145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over43c393.8$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.7725850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Under57c351.49$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005354.7%29 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95fe…3896backed Under57c348.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-45.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under56c331.21$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1616850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Over43c309.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.697439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Over43c300$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1702454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b0…1846backed Over44c295.45$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.452487.5%21 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+36%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over41c285.28$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4976234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c1…32f7backed Under45c277.13$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4984…7aaabacked Over42c249.99$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.992642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Over43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.56955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.568246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over44c179.66$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.141,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7509…e8b4backed Under59c177.28$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.440%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f9a…7ef9backed Over46c163.04$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.041526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over43c160$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9263645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over43c150$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.52458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x011b…fcc3backed Under58c120.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Over42c120$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.221051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2820957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over43c112$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8415453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2344…6ba3backed Under54c105.61$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.062941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6238845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5811060%66 W · 44 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Under57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710454.8%57 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5914642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over41c97.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5625352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under56c89.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9937344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bbc…3fe1backed Under57c89.23$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa12c…b9ecbacked Over45c88.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.891050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x201b…9146backed Under58c88.6$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Under57c88.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d7…0ed9backed Under57c87.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae39…c212backed Under58c86.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Over42c82.53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.873351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Under55c80$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.66331.7%20 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over43c75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7510855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Over43c72.85$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3420153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c4…359ebacked Over69c72.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.444273.8%31 W · 11 L+12.1wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+73%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked Under31c71.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.325644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9346…ea03backed Over42c71.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.435246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6dd…3ab9backed Under59c67.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e29backed Over38c65.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.791942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over33c60.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6127142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64e1…eb3dbacked Over43c58.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Under51c57.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3518353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over42c55.03$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9210552.4%55 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over33c54.55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5511744.4%52 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…b3c2backed Under31c48.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e78…70c7backed Over42c47.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.492254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3167…f43cbacked Over43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.511450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over43c46.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.151,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.455158.8%30 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2da1…26a7backed Over43c44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.081258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4766…0a29backed Under59c43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Over42c41.91$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.314641.3%19 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+52.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.448146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.