Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeebeaed7bfe3254262782daae296d4b8902e7e74d54946019d22d600ee0da1fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 70c | 3,079$2,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.57 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 2,746$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.79 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 733.1$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…1846backed Over | 70c | 498.47$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.47 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 181.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…fbedbacked Over | 71c | 112.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 60c | 99.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 30c | 93.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 29c | 92.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 66.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 59.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…2465backed Over | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 63c | 50.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 38c | 42.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Over | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.