La Liga · resolved market
CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16a02101b68e87524217723feaaacb9a5249f6c1139852ce0614e755d4a6b6b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 1,403$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.67 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…afa6backed Over | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 30c | 329.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Over | 22c | 186.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 64c | 184.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 18c | 135.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 227 | 29.1%66 W · 161 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…878cbacked Under | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 36c | 134.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 35c | 113.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 79c | 99.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 77c | 97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Over | 36c | 79.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 67c | 75.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 174 | 55.2%96 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Under | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 192 | 47.4%91 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c4…2852backed Under | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe400…9aa9backed Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…8e6fbacked Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…2c2cbacked Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…78b6backed Under | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 33c | 38.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 34c | 31.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 65c | 17.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Under | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 145 | 74.5%108 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 15.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…3c61backed Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5this page
- CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.