Champions League · resolved market
Champions League Quarterfinals: PSG vs. Aston Villa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b7f6e5a49a4662f0f2a4323e7ba0d940baa637a175580b8f7c633fe07f0ba3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PSGof PSG, Aston Villa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed Aston Villa | 7c | 34,297$2,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,453.16 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Aston Villa | 8c | 16,723$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.24 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Aston Villa | 13c | 10,719$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.76 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Aston Villa | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Aston Villa | 19c | 5,541$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.83 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Aston Villa | 18c | 5,049$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.45 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -9.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…b0d0backed Aston Villa | 3c | 3,781$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Aston Villa | 20c | 2,382$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.11 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Aston Villa | 9c | 2,201$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.07 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…9679backed Aston Villa | 20c | 1,480$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…af66backed Aston Villa | 18c | 1,400$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Aston Villa | 17c | 1,300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed Aston Villa | 19c | 999.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Aston Villa | 19c | 966.91$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Aston Villa | 21c | 937.77$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.21 | 175 | 60%105 W · 70 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Aston Villa | 12c | 918$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Aston Villa | 60c | 851.51$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.42 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Aston Villa | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Aston Villa | 19c | 768$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.46 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Aston Villa | 17c | 662.24$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.18 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Aston Villa | 19c | 625.34$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…7dccbacked Aston Villa | 8c | 599.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…29b5backed Aston Villa | 20c | 562.32$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Aston Villa | 23c | 540.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Aston Villa | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Aston Villa | 13c | 500$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…dcbcbacked Aston Villa | 8c | 439.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Aston Villa | 21c | 332.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Aston Villa | 18c | 324.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Aston Villa | 19c | 320$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Aston Villa | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +157.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Aston Villa | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Aston Villa | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Aston Villa | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…22ccbacked Aston Villa | 20c | 262.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed PSG | 50c | 244$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…a9c8backed PSG | 78c | 235.62$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…7983backed Aston Villa | 22c | 225.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Aston Villa | 20c | 221.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…8c87backed PSG | 80c | 204.35$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Aston Villa | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffb…7fb6backed Aston Villa | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…6047backed Aston Villa | 20c | 165$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…2fc6backed Aston Villa | 9c | 163.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed PSG | 80c | 159.98$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Aston Villa | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Aston Villa | 18c | 141.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc346…fe36backed Aston Villa | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…f39bbacked Aston Villa | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…3a00backed Aston Villa | 15c | 102.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…e93bbacked Aston Villa | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ef…f738backed Aston Villa | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…78b6backed Aston Villa | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…6f95backed PSG | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Aston Villa | 18c | 58.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b6…9adfbacked Aston Villa | 20c | 50.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Aston Villa | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…6a7bbacked Aston Villa | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…3cdbbacked PSG | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed PSG | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ea…425abacked PSG | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed PSG | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked PSG | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed PSG | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Champions League Quarterfinals: PSG vs. Aston Villathis page
- Champions League Quarterfinals: Barcelona vs. DortmundBarcelona won
- Champions League Quarterfinals: Bayern vs. Inter MilanInter Milan won
- Champions LeagueQuarterfinals: Arsenal vs. Real MadridArsenal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.