TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Champions LeagueQuarterfinals: Arsenal vs. Real Madrid

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arsenalof Arsenal, Real Madrid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$639,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$640,315

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $639,933 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 301 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Real Madrid13c87,090$11,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,225.923748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Real Madrid12c73,535$8,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,497.2217048.2%82 W · 88 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Real Madrid19c52,515$9,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,981.9312848.4%62 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed Real Madrid5c15,500$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8151118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-69.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Real Madrid15c15,256$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,288.352763%17 W · 10 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+33.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x73cb…b0d0backed Real Madrid3c10,404$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.813839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Real Madrid63c10,160$6,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,425.724235.7%15 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Real Madrid16c10,001$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.86742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8776…3589backed Real Madrid13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+74.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Arsenal59c9,826$5,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,035.2124742.5%105 W · 142 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe860…cdaabacked Real Madrid10c9,669$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.44639.1%18 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Real Madrid13c9,312$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.5920948.8%102 W · 107 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Real Madrid38c9,057$3,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,475.611136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Real Madrid14c8,498$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.227042.9%30 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf892…7f58backed Arsenal36c8,456$3,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,411.91747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+306.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb72…8b01backed Real Madrid14c7,884$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.921338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Real Madrid33c7,334$2,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,438.321618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf366…98a2backed Real Madrid14c6,894$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8afb…7f1cbacked Real Madrid14c6,410$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed Arsenal40c5,869$2,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,526.32626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb7b…23d2backed Real Madrid15c5,281$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6301…b997backed Real Madrid19c5,276$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+276.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Real Madrid47c4,605$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.715538.1%59 W · 96 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked Real Madrid13c4,470$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.05580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Real Madrid15c4,012$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Real Madrid14c4,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9929138.1%111 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Arsenal37c3,985$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,516.9211916.8%20 W · 99 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8568…938fbacked Real Madrid15c3,670$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4992…5b51backed Real Madrid15c3,606$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43bc…41c9backed Real Madrid15c3,448$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Real Madrid59c2,890$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.2221744.7%97 W · 120 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c67…29dbbacked Arsenal42c2,859$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.91771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48db…820bbacked Real Madrid14c2,681$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c0…998cbacked Real Madrid15c2,675$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d9c…338fbacked Real Madrid13c2,631$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b7e…2273backed Real Madrid15c2,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Arsenal59c2,360$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.7317560%105 W · 70 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0041…7dccbacked Real Madrid13c2,275$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.52626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Real Madrid15c2,271$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.584332.6%14 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+106.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbc…a861backed Real Madrid16c2,188$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Arsenal38c2,094$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.3838048.7%185 W · 195 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd922…ab20backed Real Madrid15c2,067$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Real Madrid15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010631.1%33 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26c1…9e2cbacked Real Madrid16c1,944$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-65.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd32a…e927backed Real Madrid5c1,833$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Real Madrid15c1,822$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.8610931.2%34 W · 75 L-9.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-31.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Real Madrid14c1,801$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.57946.8%37 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Real Madrid16c1,777$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.6426443.9%116 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf62d…d3a0backed Real Madrid60c1,664$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Real Madrid7c1,635$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.629046.7%42 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28c9…5769backed Real Madrid15c1,575$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.241450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ff…29b5backed Real Madrid63c1,567$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-79.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa293…2919backed Real Madrid14c1,564$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.951637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+36.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d08…eda0backed Real Madrid12c1,500$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Arsenal62c1,413$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.817466.1%115 W · 59 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf937…6b43backed Arsenal40c1,364$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.435761.4%35 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Real Madrid5c1,353$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6411245.5%51 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6743…4ccbbacked Real Madrid15c1,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x418f…b7b6backed Real Madrid15c1,290$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.711020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e5…c4fcbacked Real Madrid15c1,221$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8933…1495backed Real Madrid15c1,202$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.2330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Arsenal37c1,182$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.6617658.5%103 W · 73 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4e71backed Arsenal41c1,110$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9305…f152backed Real Madrid12c1,098$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Real Madrid6c1,078$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21cf…a7c7backed Real Madrid13c1,058$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x155a…f515backed Real Madrid13c1,002$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.22616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Real Madrid15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013139.7%52 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b66…c465backed Arsenal42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5801100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f24…f47bbacked Real Madrid13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb02d…109dbacked Real Madrid61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f6…4cf4backed Real Madrid5c999.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4db1…7a85backed Real Madrid10c997.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f8…649fbacked Arsenal43c961.84$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+131.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c1c…9d59backed Real Madrid15c835.05$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Real Madrid60c783.36$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.683458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+29.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Real Madrid15c777.76$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6625450%127 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Real Madrid57c767.03$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.215939%23 W · 36 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e4b…3c6dbacked Real Madrid14c749.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dac…b312backed Real Madrid15c744.43$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed Arsenal39c724.42$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.828151.9%42 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd38…09a8backed Real Madrid7c722$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4406…4b19backed Arsenal38c718.01$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.012231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36f8…4dc3backed Real Madrid14c713.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.962653.8%14 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+83.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf21…7d42backed Real Madrid4c711.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe939…2af4backed Real Madrid15c700$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Arsenal37c696.89$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.046060%36 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Arsenal49c696.58$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.636552.3%34 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61c3…54c2backed Real Madrid15c670.93$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Real Madrid40c659.6$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1a…babbbacked Real Madrid16c656.25$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0901…3e45backed Arsenal44c632.16$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf8…f5bbbacked Real Madrid60c630$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69bb…0f5cbacked Real Madrid16c630$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x723e…3525backed Arsenal43c622.97$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Real Madrid25c621$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.4629142.3%123 W · 168 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5327…3b80backed Real Madrid15c613.33$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926527.7%18 W · 47 L-8.3wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d59…2589backed Arsenal39c599.99$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.991030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07bc…5c37backed Real Madrid16c590.44$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4760%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…c1cebacked Real Madrid14c573.42$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.