Champions League · resolved market
Champions League Quarterfinals: Barcelona vs. Dortmund
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51fa8a3e46b7bf79e61d03e6ee1fb4a88af4de2a4bf4516a4d8c7594bee0d29a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Barcelonaof Barcelona, Dortmund
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Dortmund | 4c | 30,233$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.7 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Dortmund | 2c | 11,224$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.29 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…6ffbbacked Dortmund | 2c | 7,714$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed Dortmund | 12c | 6,605$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.71 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Dortmund | 13c | 6,151$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.34 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Dortmund | 15c | 5,093$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.39 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Dortmund | 17c | 3,949$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.34 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -9.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…12f6backed Dortmund | 1c | 3,795$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Dortmund | 1c | 2,686$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked Dortmund | 16c | 2,525$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Dortmund | 16c | 2,396$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.11 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…3a00backed Dortmund | 1c | 1,780$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9d…b0c6backed Dortmund | 1c | 1,600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Dortmund | 1c | 1,301$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Dortmund | 1c | 1,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Dortmund | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Dortmund | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…22ccbacked Dortmund | 17c | 757.47$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1340…a94ebacked Dortmund | 2c | 735$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Dortmund | 18c | 647.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…1395backed Dortmund | 22c | 643.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Dortmund | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Dortmund | 17c | 530.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…6c31backed Barcelona | 80c | 489.14$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Dortmund | 16c | 364.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Dortmund | 7c | 343.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Dortmund | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed Dortmund | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…4b19backed Dortmund | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Dortmund | 8c | 219.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…d082backed Dortmund | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Dortmund | 18c | 205.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…a32abacked Dortmund | 18c | 175.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Dortmund | 18c | 169.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Dortmund | 19c | 167$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Dortmund | 18c | 163.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Dortmund | 14c | 137.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Dortmund | 13c | 125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…6047backed Dortmund | 17c | 108.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Dortmund | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Dortmund | 16c | 84.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Dortmund | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…b8aebacked Dortmund | 18c | 79.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe65e…4bc8backed Dortmund | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a22…7a83backed Dortmund | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Barcelona | 80c | 47.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Champions League Quarterfinals: Barcelona vs. Dortmundthis page
- Champions League Quarterfinals: Bayern vs. Inter MilanInter Milan won
- Champions League Quarterfinals: PSG vs. Aston VillaPSG won
- Champions LeagueQuarterfinals: Arsenal vs. Real MadridArsenal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.