Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 18–25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41702bfa11e6eb45a04c3e9ed0b42eb7a38ef2cfc41209f6359d716453784d80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $252,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 22c | 15,112$3,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,260.58 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 31c | 11,743$3,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,633.84 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 79c | 11,701$9,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,476.22 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 41c | 10,894$4,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,489.29 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 14c | 10,819$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.88 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 12c | 9,021$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.28 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 24c | 8,102$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.5 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 17c | 6,945$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.99 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5356…1b01backed Yes | 5c | 6,660$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 78c | 6,276$4,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.07 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 37c | 5,944$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.65 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 68c | 5,276$3,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.87 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 4,637$3,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.85 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 29c | 4,397$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.78 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 30c | 4,200$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.36 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…dc01backed Yes | 36c | 3,751$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 34c | 3,598$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.81 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 34c | 3,488$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.86 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 27c | 3,475$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.75 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 26c | 3,349$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.68 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…cfc5backed Yes | 28c | 3,345$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.68 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 23c | 3,109$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.89 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 31c | 2,852$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.75 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 78c | 2,808$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.53 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 32c | 2,530$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.91 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 33c | 2,472$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.19 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 45c | 2,425$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.52 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 16c | 2,003$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.23 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 2,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c9…5a03backed Yes | 11c | 1,803$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbc…a24cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,706$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…73a8backed Yes | 59c | 1,703$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 19c | 1,622$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.38 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 19c | 1,600$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 48c | 1,582$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.89 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 32c | 1,580$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.93 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…f687backed Yes | 55c | 1,505$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 12c | 1,438$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.62 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 53c | 1,420$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.6 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…6c70backed Yes | 39c | 1,404$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 43c | 1,380$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.78 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,349$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.49 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 25c | 1,341$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.05 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 50c | 1,336$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.24 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 77c | 1,275$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.12 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91d…e92bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,268$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed No | 73c | 1,261$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.93 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed No | 72c | 1,250$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 26c | 1,119$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.15 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 28c | 1,090$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.55 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed No | 64c | 1,076$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.36 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 29c | 1,050$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 28c | 951.34$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.75 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 30c | 910.24$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.42 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…0e52backed Yes | 15c | 764.55$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 43c | 752$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.69 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 23c | 717.37$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.93 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0986…26fabacked Yes | 40c | 675$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 9c | 663.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes | 37c | 630.69$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 31c | 620.68$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.16 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 16c | 610.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 59c | 604.65$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.68 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…0baabacked Yes | 20c | 580.52$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 49c | 578$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.71 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 14c | 556$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…e16abacked Yes | 32c | 555.72$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.22 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…c17fbacked Yes | 13c | 534.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 23c | 526.76$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1f…896bbacked No | 59c | 525$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed No | 71c | 499.99$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Yes | 45c | 499.98$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 23c | 497.23$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.36 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb3…da37backed Yes | 41c | 480$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 37c | 462.38$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.78 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 449.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 22c | 442.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 24c | 435$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 59c | 422.48$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.27 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 17c | 415.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 22c | 414.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 65c | 413.96$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.53 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 21c | 407.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 26c | 406.37$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 15c | 387.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…e08bbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…e22ebacked No | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6037…1e45backed No | 60c | 375$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 63c | 362.48$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.37 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 335.34$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 38c | 329.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…7b78backed Yes | 31c | 323$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802c…a6c4backed Yes | 29c | 316.86$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 18–25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 18–25?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.