Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a1df6477891e2930b016ea88fe751068d08686e8eef82bae1542fef9e7e667d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $298,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 34,247$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.63 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 31,026$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.37 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 24,051$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.9 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 0c | 19,999$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…3963backed Yes | 0c | 14,959$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 2c | 12,094$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.99 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 2c | 5,600$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 5,228$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 1c | 4,705$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 2c | 4,579$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 1c | 4,234$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 4,009$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.53 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 2c | 3,236$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 1c | 2,977$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 2,431$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…c13fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,389$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a4…f43ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,682$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,600$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 3c | 1,530$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 2c | 1,335$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 6c | 1,333$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 1c | 900$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 10c | 704.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x144c…aa62backed Yes | 6c | 663.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91d…e92bbacked Yes | 10c | 511.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 2c | 450$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 305$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f6…6182backed Yes | 7c | 140.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 18–25?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 18–25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.