Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 18–25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67f4182afc1ebc7e509829ccbe4fb7f7d80849ae0cc32052fe609099b988c639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $278,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $269,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 16c | 15,014$2,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,562.33 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 25c | 9,773$2,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,341.15 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 14c | 6,558$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,656.87 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 13c | 5,658$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,922.33 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 7c | 5,106$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,765.03 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 20c | 5,105$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,109.75 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 26c | 4,908$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,609.28 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 26c | 3,809$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,807.48 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 39c | 3,206$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.95 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 47c | 3,108$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.89 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 26c | 3,002$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.2 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 19c | 2,518$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.52 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 29c | 2,456$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.97 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 1c | 2,332$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 22c | 2,270$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.69 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 20c | 2,258$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.27 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c9…5a03backed Yes | 31c | 2,207$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 56c | 2,190$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.27 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 76c | 1,862$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.99 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked No | 1c | 1,860$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 20c | 1,828$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.77 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 18c | 1,809$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.6 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 12c | 1,700$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.18 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed No | 4c | 1,633$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 14c | 1,600$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.6 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 30c | 1,583$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.1 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…2526backed No | 78c | 1,494$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.18 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -6.7wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 1,457$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.87 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 32c | 1,355$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.55 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 75c | 1,345$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.27 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 15c | 1,300$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.48 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 50c | 1,279$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.12 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 54c | 1,261$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.81 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…6c70backed Yes | 11c | 1,226$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 28c | 1,178$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.59 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 32c | 1,140$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.96 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…0baabacked Yes | 23c | 1,075$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 20c | 1,034$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.22 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 69c | 1,032$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.04 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,004$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.97 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.99 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 9c | 999.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 21c | 920$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.8 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 36c | 880$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.25 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 23c | 852.21$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.98 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbc…a24cbacked Yes | 14c | 848.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 24c | 830.52$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.55 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 11c | 815$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.46 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 2c | 790.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 763.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.51 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 36c | 760.76$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.16 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 23c | 740.33$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.64 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 21c | 708$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.16 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 15c | 702.32$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.37 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 15c | 700.79$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.79 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 15c | 675.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.51 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 36c | 672.98$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.14 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 38c | 649.17$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.61 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…7dadbacked Yes | 31c | 647.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 45c | 639.91$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.74 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 7c | 630$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.4 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 609.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.62 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb6…8bc2backed Yes | 10c | 609$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +861.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 603.42$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.52 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 44c | 596.92$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 3c | 561.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 37c | 559.84$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.72 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 15c | 544.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.41 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 18c | 521.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.47 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7883…1e8cbacked Yes | 18c | 479.89$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.56 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 46c | 476$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.88 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…c96ebacked Yes | 59c | 426.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.47 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 18c | 412.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.06 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 50c | 400.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.93 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…47eebacked Yes | 22c | 393.45$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.89 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 60c | 357$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…c17fbacked Yes | 14c | 353.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.23 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…0821backed Yes | 15c | 350.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.82 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 75c | 287.96$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 72c | 285.02$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed No | 72c | 274.56$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.83 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 75c | 273.96$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.47 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…a30dbacked Yes | 77c | 260.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 12c | 260.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.36 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 21c | 256.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.18 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.39 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…e16abacked Yes | 26c | 246.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.98 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 228.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.09 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 62c | 222.65$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.27 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 62c | 220$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked No | 64c | 214.94$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.79 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 51c | 210.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe921…f7e9backed Yes | 34c | 209$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…be78backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.52 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff1…337ebacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Yes | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 57c | 198.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f30…6b5cbacked Yes | 80c | 197$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 35c | 193.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.76 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 18–25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.