Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 18–25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd77ec21e0c568249f1433ac91da594e3ac8690fe0fa5ac92532069977750d54c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $306,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 11c | 16,611$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.73 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 2c | 13,949$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.47 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,617$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 15c | 10,532$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.37 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5511…bc78backed Yes | 1c | 10,280$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 29c | 10,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…f762backed Yes | 0c | 9,580$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 20c | 9,418$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.58 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 7,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.38 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c9…5a03backed Yes | 17c | 6,620$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 2c | 4,393$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 1c | 4,372$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 34c | 4,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…e4f0backed Yes | 1c | 3,952$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 22c | 3,661$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.53 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 37c | 3,415$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.03 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 5c | 3,200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…c006backed Yes | 0c | 3,018$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 80c | 2,952$2,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.23 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 2,680$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,529$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 1c | 2,246$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 1c | 2,187$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 7c | 2,013$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.04 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 14c | 1,662$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 15c | 1,613$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.76 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 14c | 1,600$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.55 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 30c | 1,532$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.99 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 19c | 1,522$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.64 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 28c | 1,476$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.02 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 8c | 1,350$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 1,324$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 22c | 1,312$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.57 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbc…a24cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,261$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.82 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 18c | 1,247$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.57 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc601…bf3fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 14c | 1,190$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.3 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 1,038$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 32c | 1,004$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 948.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 23c | 932.89$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.77 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 7c | 854.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…1f2cbacked Yes | 2c | 821.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 42c | 799.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 13c | 750$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…6e53backed Yes | 1c | 744.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 734.84$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.45 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 15c | 719$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 31c | 708.52$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.07 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 38c | 706.26$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.94 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…6c70backed Yes | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 700$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 13c | 678.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 21c | 666$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 17c | 595.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 20c | 567.21$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 15c | 550$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 26c | 533.57$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 25c | 490.89$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…73a8backed Yes | 21c | 466.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7883…1e8cbacked Yes | 17c | 402.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 8c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 398$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 370.55$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 22c | 367.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 7c | 356.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…e16abacked Yes | 25c | 344.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 33c | 338.44$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…763fbacked Yes | 6c | 312.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…0baabacked Yes | 22c | 311.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 26c | 300.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 5c | 281.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…7b78backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 19c | 261.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 12c | 255$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 78c | 250.83$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f6…6182backed Yes | 9c | 233.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…9c65backed Yes | 7c | 217$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 6c | 203.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…bed1backed Yes | 18c | 178.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -65%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 23c | 173.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…b534backed Yes | 21c | 169.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 15c | 169.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796e…bc25backed Yes | 16c | 140.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…e310backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x432f…9fe5backed Yes | 30c | 132.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 18–25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 18–25?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.