Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc11ef6987c89be9faa1b704d7c75b529567390792efd64af55caf3fe9ee866f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $382,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 6c | 23,722$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.93 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 8c | 18,990$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.83 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 16,795$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.52 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…97b4backed Yes | 3c | 15,150$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.4 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 13,047$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 5c | 11,546$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.68 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 2c | 11,052$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.87 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 10,409$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.05 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 4c | 8,030$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.49 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 1c | 6,667$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 3c | 6,590$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.3 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 14c | 6,429$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.41 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 11c | 6,149$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.86 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 5c | 5,540$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.64 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 4c | 5,424$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 5,416$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.39 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 8c | 5,276$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.12 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 8c | 5,044$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.94 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 3c | 4,857$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.58 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,785$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.36 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 7c | 4,738$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.46 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 4,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.41 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 7c | 4,000$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 7c | 3,710$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.38 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…c690backed Yes | 9c | 3,318$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,300$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.27 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 8c | 3,083$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.63 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,761$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 2c | 2,759$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c9…5a03backed Yes | 8c | 2,719$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,399$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 2,300$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,236$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.46 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 5c | 2,215$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.46 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,172$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,116$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 5c | 1,922$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,770$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,720$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes | 5c | 1,716$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 1,690$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,685$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 9c | 1,632$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 8c | 1,628$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.89 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 10c | 1,600$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 10c | 1,551$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 8c | 1,536$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.67 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,512$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,460$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,457$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 10c | 1,351$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.09 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,196$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 4c | 1,149$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes | 5c | 1,016$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 5c | 905.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 9c | 904.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 5c | 889.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 3c | 868$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 3c | 825.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2143…0555backed Yes | 11c | 743.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…6c70backed Yes | 3c | 700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 9c | 690.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 2c | 647.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 9c | 632.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 3c | 582.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…c17fbacked Yes | 9c | 577.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796e…bc25backed Yes | 5c | 554.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587f…7765backed Yes | 9c | 550.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 5c | 540$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 5c | 535.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 9c | 529.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 10c | 519.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 8c | 519.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…0baabacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…6892backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…c96ebacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 6c | 398.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 17c | 388.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89db…f522backed Yes | 11c | 388.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a92…2519backed Yes | 4c | 333.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed Yes | 3c | 328.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 5c | 324.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…1f2cbacked Yes | 7c | 304.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 6c | 300.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 5c | 295.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 10c | 287.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 7c | 287.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 5c | 282.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 4c | 268.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 8c | 261.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3c…9041backed Yes | 12c | 258.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 18–25?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.