Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 18–25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfee4fcdeda5c47216d2d7ae25090cc81e9474055e732c53a2a3f2ab1ba985ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $301,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $220,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 25c | 30,233$7,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,609.67 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 25c | 17,000$4,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,253.76 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 12c | 16,475$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.68 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 24c | 13,397$3,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,258.8 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 11,500$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 74c | 9,111$6,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,353.44 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 21c | 7,996$1,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.46 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 18c | 7,938$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.58 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 5,064$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.99 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 33c | 3,994$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.49 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 30c | 3,404$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.04 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 26c | 3,265$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.89 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 24c | 3,194$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.85 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 25c | 3,142$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.07 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 34c | 3,026$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,930$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.02 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 19c | 2,928$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.02 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 31c | 2,859$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.04 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…f687backed Yes | 26c | 2,329$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 16c | 2,278$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.55 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked No | 73c | 2,220$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.5 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 28c | 1,869$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.12 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c9…5a03backed Yes | 35c | 1,861$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,838$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.31 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 1,758$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.93 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…6c70backed Yes | 26c | 1,488$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 24c | 1,457$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.69 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,385$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.79 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 8c | 1,350$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 33c | 1,288$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.2 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 28c | 1,189$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.24 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 30c | 1,150$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.69 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbc…a24cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,149$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 33c | 1,147$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.1 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…707fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,113$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2eb…95d6backed No | 77c | 1,003$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 36c | 999.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 23c | 999.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4311…af56backed Yes | 27c | 995$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 27c | 989.13$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.69 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 26c | 977.52$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.38 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 23c | 969.35$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.38 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 28c | 959.98$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 71c | 906.72$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.72 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 17c | 901.57$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.15 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…cfc5backed Yes | 24c | 900$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…7b78backed Yes | 34c | 882.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3084…2638backed No | 77c | 875$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 23c | 869.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…95b1backed Yes | 23c | 845$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 30c | 820.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.06 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 25c | 814.6$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 25c | 808.97$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.91 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…e16abacked Yes | 31c | 765.92$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 27c | 752.15$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.82 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 74c | 752.13$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.2 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…9cb4backed No | 72c | 750$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 748.81$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.59 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 31c | 721.14$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.11 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 28c | 693.5$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.74 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 74c | 688.71$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.07 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…0baabacked Yes | 26c | 664.28$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.92 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 28c | 636.67$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.29 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed No | 69c | 600$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 593$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 577.68$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.42 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…0a61backed Yes | 24c | 553.21$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 4c | 551.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 36c | 508.23$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.97 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 31c | 500$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91d…e92bbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.69 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…2cf0backed Yes | 27c | 499.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 23c | 499.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…527ebacked Yes | 28c | 485$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…28b9backed No | 73c | 475$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 33c | 455.9$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.28 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 452.52$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.95 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 23c | 450$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 18c | 449.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 21c | 448.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875a…ca98backed No | 65c | 424.15$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 32c | 405.12$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 30c | 400$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.51 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 23c | 393.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 18c | 389.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…73a8backed Yes | 26c | 379.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 24c | 379.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 37c | 374.98$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…3a54backed Yes | 28c | 365$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 26c | 330.45$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1483…e269backed Yes | 26c | 324.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7883…1e8cbacked Yes | 25c | 324.84$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 23c | 306.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 18–25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 18–25?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.