Us Politics · resolved market
Will there be a US Government shutdown?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87d67272f0ce1bb0d80ba12a1ab79287b2a235a5f361f5bcbc06ea0ce34e61c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,500,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,079,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,500,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,824 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd152…f201backed No | 0c | 4,937,351$13,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,691.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 0c | 2,107,518$3,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,248 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,301,643$1,019,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281,903.73 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…444dbacked No | 0c | 1,194,217$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…8048backed No | 2c | 1,015,790$19,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,215.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3421…e48ebacked No | 2c | 695,644$13,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,115.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…d65ebacked No | 3c | 658,068$17,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,963.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…3f2ebacked No | 1c | 656,061$6,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,427.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…0b2dbacked No | 3c | 475,018$12,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,096.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 3c | 461,636$11,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,672.02 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…1ea0backed No | 2c | 418,377$6,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,362.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…e83fbacked No | 2c | 415,786$10,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,074.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…e03abacked No | 1c | 397,675$5,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,641.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cd…cc27backed No | 1c | 349,032$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,581.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff38…e01dbacked No | 1c | 340,472$4,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,006.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ab…c99abacked No | 0c | 328,009$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed No | 1c | 323,531$4,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,787.21 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcd…68babacked No | 1c | 317,995$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…7a5fbacked No | 1c | 313,007$3,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,417.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…f4ddbacked No | 1c | 302,053$3,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,201.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c72…9567backed No | 0c | 295,012$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…8021backed No | 0c | 278,742$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 44c | 267,503$117,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149,945.88 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…c2c7backed No | 0c | 249,370$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec30…c359backed No | 0c | 245,162$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…4c30backed No | 1c | 230,868$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 4c | 226,802$9,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,945.82 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…2a80backed No | 0c | 218,518$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4709…bb0cbacked No | 1c | 213,395$2,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,857.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d32…1859backed No | 3c | 213,367$5,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,914.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bc…84f0backed No | 0c | 209,275$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…9826backed No | 7c | 204,494$14,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,600 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed No | 0c | 185,876$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.56 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…fc0ebacked No | 1c | 183,023$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…79d0backed No | 0c | 178,908$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…0eddbacked No | 1c | 169,098$2,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,495.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…8fb6backed No | 2c | 164,551$3,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,108.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…d2cebacked No | 0c | 160,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…2c0bbacked No | 12c | 159,573$19,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,076.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d00…506ebacked No | 2c | 157,153$3,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,069 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…9b20backed No | 10c | 157,072$15,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,993.28 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…25b0backed No | 1c | 151,679$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…6844backed No | 1c | 143,924$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 0c | 141,986$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.85 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af9…6216backed No | 1c | 141,933$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927b…6416backed No | 2c | 136,059$2,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,964.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5e…d2f6backed No | 1c | 132,862$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…0f1cbacked No | 2c | 123,479$3,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,064.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00b…9c89backed No | 1c | 123,235$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 0c | 122,938$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.3 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 2c | 120,638$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.4 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 45c | 118,521$53,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,801 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed No | 1c | 117,252$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.48 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 43c | 116,567$49,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,618.39 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 2c | 115,237$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,251.06 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 77c | 114,206$87,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,234.71 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e7…5df1backed No | 7c | 113,534$7,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,511.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7709…5852backed No | 1c | 112,612$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked No | 1c | 111,396$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.84 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 10c | 111,269$10,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,972.48 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e87…4cf9backed No | 2c | 107,128$2,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,068.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…2394backed No | 1c | 105,556$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 1c | 102,000$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…4ae9backed No | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 19c | 96,023$18,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,598.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf1…70a7backed No | 13c | 94,577$12,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,236.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 60c | 93,837$56,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,391.98 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…eacfbacked No | 1c | 93,697$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.85 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…db30backed No | 1c | 92,818$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked No | 4c | 92,055$3,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,345.42 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 67c | 91,407$60,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,457.72 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…9f1bbacked No | 1c | 90,283$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…4694backed No | 7c | 89,929$6,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,726.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +371.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…15bbbacked No | 1c | 89,545$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 2c | 88,611$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.81 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…09fcbacked No | 1c | 88,004$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c0…2d68backed No | 1c | 86,527$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…cfb3backed No | 1c | 85,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…de00backed No | 2c | 84,543$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…a236backed No | 2c | 83,045$1,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 6c | 82,030$5,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,033.88 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…6e87backed No | 0c | 81,778$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d0…d39cbacked No | 1c | 81,734$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d17…b25cbacked No | 0c | 80,525$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked No | 1c | 78,212$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e0…e51ebacked No | 1c | 78,040$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 53c | 77,908$41,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,360.28 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8a…3840backed No | 2c | 76,792$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…d1d8backed No | 0c | 75,576$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…1a2dbacked No | 1c | 75,023$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…284dbacked No | 1c | 73,434$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc9…fef7backed No | 1c | 71,665$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69b…91e5backed No | 2c | 71,022$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbd…0649backed No | 0c | 69,469$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…13dcbacked No | 3c | 69,133$2,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,314.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 2c | 68,453$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.01 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…c9cdbacked No | 0c | 66,220$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…98febacked No | 1c | 65,810$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 76c | 64,831$49,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,714.03 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed Yes | 62c | 64,734$40,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,580.93 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.