Europa Conference League · resolved market
Lille OSC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa76a74828e5828d3b1cec9275358c0226aeef10f08b7e938ec51e96795a71c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc311…44fcbacked Over | 37c | 27,101$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 63c | 18,250$11,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,752.68 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 11c | 5,364$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.06 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Under | 65c | 5,176$3,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.67 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 35c | 4,074$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 64c | 2,734$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.24 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 64c | 2,685$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.84 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 63c | 2,038$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.06 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 29c | 1,750$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.95 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -8.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 33c | 499.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Under | 68c | 367.65$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Under | 67c | 362.69$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 314.51$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…bdc2backed Under | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 64c | 299.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 35c | 240$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 35c | 199.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Under | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 26c | 143.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 30c | 127.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Over | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 67c | 57.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 66c | 53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 33c | 47.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Under | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…78b6backed Under | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 31.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Under | 68c | 22.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…f678backed Under | 66c | 21.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be2…9b15backed Under | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 65c | 18.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed Under | 66c | 16.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lille OSC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5this page
- Lille OSC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lille OSC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 1.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.