Us Politics · resolved market
Will $TRUMP hit $50B FDV by noon on inauguration day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac63efbb1ae80b5c04a782b9b017a67ced9f07820b0e2be96f399b4c39549959
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37dc…11edbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 64c | 9,484$6,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,076.43 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa15…be8dbacked Yes | 31c | 7,526$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,226.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +227.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 44c | 6,457$2,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,603.8 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 20c | 4,232$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,385.7 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 31c | 3,994$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,744.76 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…e509backed No | 1c | 3,535$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 55c | 2,093$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.55 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 44c | 2,076$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.53 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 7c | 2,031$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.41 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 49c | 1,804$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.28 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 68c | 1,677$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 1,473$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.64 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18f…f31ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,406$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +603%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 60c | 1,222$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.6 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 45c | 1,130$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.37 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…e5c2backed Yes | 29c | 1,091$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa880…d095backed No | 19c | 1,037$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…cecfbacked Yes | 75c | 902.93$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…f1d3backed Yes | 27c | 877.13$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…5ceebacked Yes | 24c | 659.68$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 43c | 581.53$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.93 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…2154backed Yes | 25c | 566.95$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +293.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…4f3abacked Yes | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 50c | 437.6$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.68 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d9…2025backed Yes | 80c | 423.12$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 24c | 400$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed No | 37c | 400$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1b…62c1backed No | 76c | 400$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked Yes | 50c | 399.57$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 39c | 380.16$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…ef35backed No | 50c | 335$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 32c | 310$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…60acbacked No | 68c | 280.35$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39e5…74cfbacked No | 77c | 260.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed No | 25c | 235.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed Yes | 63c | 234.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 25c | 203.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed No | 53c | 200.1$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…8917backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +87%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed No | 76c | 200$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7633…1a22backed Yes | 57c | 191.11$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…c748backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 23c | 164.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 76c | 132.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…7af8backed Yes | 56c | 130.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c9…22d8backed Yes | 24c | 124.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…bc20backed Yes | 28c | 123.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +252.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 12c | 111$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…2c7cbacked Yes | 26c | 109.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…9e74backed Yes | 51c | 106.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…e7e5backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed0…2bc4backed No | 51c | 98.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 69c | 98.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…2324backed Yes | 52c | 96.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7d…035ebacked No | 52c | 94.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…4209backed No | 51c | 93.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 74c | 90$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…1c91backed Yes | 48c | 84.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e72…361ebacked No | 63c | 73.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b5…0cfabacked Yes | 25c | 58.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…e6febacked Yes | 34c | 58.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes | 74c | 48.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd39c…55dbbacked Yes | 45c | 45.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…4c0bbacked Yes | 55c | 43.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 39.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x769b…b1d2backed No | 42c | 36.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…05b5backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 76c | 29.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…6c30backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…50e4backed No | 73c | 26.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…069bbacked No | 77c | 18.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.